This is what I was writing on Apr 25, 2020, 10:42 PM.
In Taiwan, we’ve had quite a different story, as you know, so far with COVID-19. But authorities have been quite far ahead of the game… The only real risk now is from visitors and returnees… but they’ve pretty much anticipated most of those problems. I can’t see any need for social distancing in Taiwan right now.
But still the authorities are upping their game. I guess they think there is going to be a part 2, once international travel starts up again; and people start moving around the world again. This week, we’ve been seeing (and been advised about) social distancing measures outdoors (shopping, etc)… it’s not official policy here yet because community transfer has not happened.
I think everyone is wondering how we learn to live WITH the virus. The world cannot stop going round. So some measure of accommodation is to be expected. Here is what I think:
a) rapid testing kits are now available, but soon tests will be able to deliver valid results on a single test within 15 minutes;
b) despite their unpopularity – face masks will become the norm in many countries because of their ability to limit spread;
c) treatment will quickly become very effective and reduce both the severity of symptoms and the need for extreme treatments like intubation – anti-virals are already being used with some success;
d) early treatment will become the norm esp. for vulnerable groups of the population rather than current laissez-faire treatment until it’s almost too late;
e) the vaccine will be a part of the deal, as will the other options, but it won’t come quickly, even if health authorities speed up the legal parts of the process;
The real key though will be spotting the asymptomatic spreaders because they can single-handedly infect hundreds of people. Symptomatic spreaders can also be pretty bad but that’s because we’re not prepared for the disease. Taiwan has been using ‘fever’ stations to find spreaders… but it’s largely a needle in a haystack. You might catch one or two running a mild fever… but we can’t do much else right now.
In the meantime, there will continue to be curbs on travel, events, large group meetings, etc, etc. until all the other elements fall into place.