As an outside viewer of US politics, it’s hard to consider any current republican candidate with enough international stature. I doubt I can name more than a couple who come to mind. But the coming demographic shifts in the US states particularly in the populous states will influence republican candidate choices as well as democrat. People tend to vote for those who represent their values and identity more closely.

While a candidate like Hilary Clinton would appeal to women and democrats, she may be less attractive to other segments of the demographics because she is also white, upper class (or at least appears to be), and affiliated with Bill Clinton. IMHO, it is unlikely she would win the election next time round, but she will be a strong democratic contender.

Republican candidates tend to be male, white, and socially conservative; because of these three reasons, it is going to be increasingly hard for candidates like that to win nationally, even when they pitch in Spanish in states like Texas & California. That’s not to say there aren’t good republican candidates… it’s just saying they may find it hard to be elected on a national platform. Even female candidates like Bachmann come across as just too conservative for the majority. And Jeb Bush may just one dynasty member too many for the electorate.

Such is the dialogue of US politics that it’s hard to see open consensus forming any time soon, as the system seems to create a divisive politics with little maneuvering room in the middle. There aren’t any real middle ground parties that can broker deals, appeal to disaffected voters from either of the big boys, or balance the extremes of either party.

Of course, in the UK, the Lib-Dems to a certain extent provide this function, sitting between Labor and the Conservatives. And in the short term, it will cost them their power base in the next election (as it already has); but without them, the last election would have produced a hung parliament, a parliamentary impasse, and even new elections shortly thereafter.

I had hoped that Taiwan’s politics would follow more of a European mold than it has. In fact, it seems to have hobbled slowly towards the US model, with Presidential elections, two major parties and a few very small minor parties. The two factions resemble the divisions in the US broadly speaking but the debate, political dialogue & shenanigans comes across as somewhat provincial & petty at times.

But the debate here and assumptions here are quite different to either US or UK politics; the right to bear arms, for example, is severely constrained & ownership of weapons is almost completely forbidden. Oddly, most males are able to use a rifle from their extensive military training. Citizen rights are similarly constrained by police action, esp. the right of assembly & protest. One feels that the government tolerates it but only just.

Taiwanese don’t have the same sense of political & civilian rights that both Europeans & Americans share. For all his wrong doing, I agree with one thing the previous president (now in jail for corruption) said: Taiwan’s democracy is still underdeveloped.