flag hanging on pole

Nah, just another “love us as we love Russia” festival.

India has always followed a non-aligned policy with regard to its relations with the rest of the world as a founder member of the NAM.

flag hanging on pole
Photo by Naveed Ahmed

Of course, you have to be suspicious when duplicitous countries like Russia & China (both hegemonistic powers in their own aspirations & history) are ‘observers’. But looking at the history of many member countries also suggests a certain hypocrisy:

  • Mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
  • Mutual non-aggression.
  • Mutual non-interference in domestic affairs.
  • Equality and mutual benefit.
  • Peaceful co-existence.

While 3, 4 and 5 are undoubtedly the aspects Putin/Xi are most interested in, the fact that they’re not first suggests the origins of the NAM as a way to eke out a 3rd position much as Lib/Dems in the UK, NPP and TPP in Taiwan, in a situation of increasing polarisation.

My own country’s history is hardly blameless, either… so I recognize the hypocrisy of our society in ‘lecturing’ the people of the world. At the same time, though, we ALL have to recognize that the best way forward is NOT a return to the past.

This point is something that President Putin has proven again and again over recent years. Unfortunately, President Putin will keep failing upwards until he finally fails big time. Then it’s all over for him.

The only question for the rest of us is: How long can we put up with him? The Russian population seems to have a thicker skin than the rest of us but that could be due to systemic policies that keep it in ignorance of what’s really happening.

After several centuries of colonialization, war, economic slavery by various Western powers… can we blame them? Of course, pointing out their own hypocrisy is merely one finger pointing at them, three (or more) at ourselves.

The irony (and danger) of their position is that they’re choosing, in effect, their enemy’s enemy; but neither China nor Russia is India’s friend. They compete in many spheres, including military.

While China & India have a few border conflicts, China has frozen borders with Russia. So if Russia goes around reneging treaties, what’s to stop Xi from doing the same with the treaties between the USSR and the PRC?

Seriously… not much. Putin had better beware of the risks to his Far East Empire Dreams. And shoving the Far east province recruits into the Ukraine meat grinder hardly shows any love to the peoples of East Asia. How far can Putin push without Xi demanding a quid pro quo?

There are signs that former USSR states are now warming relations with both China & the US as a way to counterbalance the threat with Putin seizing their territory in a post-Ukraine empire-building gambit.

Unfortunately, despite their mighty aims, the NAM isn’t able to counterbalance the duopoly of power effectively. The countries inside the NAM are playing off each other as much as they ‘re playing off the West in the 21st century equivalent of the great game.

India’s reliance on Russia as a weapons manufacturer should also be in doubt, given that Russia is now canceling orders, reneging supply deals for orders already paid for, having trouble sourcing parts, and redirecting munitions to its own forces. It’s unlikely that India would be so willing to buy Chinese weapons… so India will need to diversify its supply for its own needs.

The only things that India needs are Russian oil and possibly wheat imports, both of which are essential to its development and people. Of course, never one to walk away from a sweet deal, India is buying discounted oil on the market right now from Russia. I’m not sure of their pricing… I should go check that but Google isn’t as reliable as it used to be for finding such information.