Well, we’ve had multiple candidate elections in most years. Most years, it makes little or no difference in the result. But 2000 vs. 2024? Well, let’s check the differences.
| 2024 | 2001 | |
| Presidential Winner | DPP | DPP |
| Candidates in Election | 3 | 5 |
| Winner % | 40.0% | 39.3% |
| 2nd Place | KMT | Indep. |
| Legislature Majority | No | No |
My wife asked why the KMT keeps shooting themselves in the foot with their candidate selection: replacing a losing candidate in 2016, rolling out a populist in 2020, and then choosing an ex-police officer/serving mayor. In 2016, Eric Chu had to replace the erstwhile darling of mainlanders, Hung Hsiu-Chu. In 2020, the newly elected mayor of Kaohsiung City, Han Guo-Yu stepped up to the plate, lost and then was impeached as Mayor. Since then, Kaohsiung became solidly green again. This time it returned 8/8 green candidates! One wonders if the same fate awaits New Taipei City and its current mayor, Ho You-Ih.
I really have no idea. But I think part of the issue stems from having too many factions trying to control the outcome by rigging the selection procedures to suit whoever they want. I think the fractious negotiations over the joint candidacy between Ho and Ko Wen-Chang highlights the meddling that goes on from senior leaders.
Under the surface, the KMT party in the LY is bigger by % than in 2001. However, they still need crossparty support for a working majority. It’s a decent approach, and should lead to something of a stable government with a bit of stalemate thrown in.
The tail should be wagging the dog to some extent. This is going to make negotiations at least as tricky combining tickets before the election. Will Ho play ball or make things tough? Let’s see!